The Black Art

estimating

The Chaos Report 2004

The Chaos Report 2014

“One of the two most common causes of runaway projects is poor estimation”

Reliable Estimations Mean

better budgeting

increased credibility for dev team

higher quality

Preview

common body of knowledge

current state of affairs

emerging practices

The Bermuda Triangle

Estimates

“Estimation is an objective approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable” - Wikipedia

Targets

A target is a statement of a desirable business objective

Commitments

A commitment is a promise to deliver defined functionality at a specific level of quality by a certain date

Distinguish between estimates, targets and commitments

The Cone of Uncertainty

The Cone of Uncertainty

Cone Does Not Narrow Itself

Define Product Vision

Define Scope of Project

Design The UX

The Cone On Agile Projects

Making Commitments

Estimating on Agile Projects

The Story Point

size

complexity

risk

time vs points

Estimate In Relative Size

Agile Estimation Techniques

Planning Poker

Relative Mass Valuation

Relative Mass Valuation

Estimation And Scaling Frameworks

SAFe

LeSS

More Than Just a Baseline

#NoEstimates

Arguments

“It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.” - Hofstadter's Law

“Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.” - Parkinson’s Law

others ...

Accidental Complexity

feature cost = essential complx. + accidental complx.

Essential Complication

How Hard The Problem Is

tax code

landing and insurance

genetic algorithms

Accidental Complication

Organizational / Technical Issues

test environment is down

approvals

legacy code!

how long the app server takes to start :D

Estimate